This week on Большая Игра (“The Big Game”), our Russian political talk-show hosted by Dmitry Simes in his evening editions, the following topics were approached and debated on the set:
Israel/Palestine Conflict
Special Military Operation in Ukraine
Xi and Biden Meeting
1. ISRAEL/PALESTINE CONFLICT
On November 13th, Dmitry Simes introduced his show by underlying that the attention is currently pointed towards the near-east rather than Ukraine. Yaakov Kedmi, Israeli politician and diplomat, gave an assessment after 5 weeks of conflict. The first 3 weeks were dedicated to the preparation of a ground operation in Gaza, and already 2 weeks are going on into the ground operations. As a result, the northern part of Gaza is isolated and cut off from the rest of the Gaza Strip. Members of HAMAS are either still underground or fled amongst the civilian population. Kedmi continued stating that:
“within the next 3 weeks, some serious results regarding the clearing of the entire northern portion of Gaza from HAMAS are to be expected.
Then, Yaakov Kedmi mentioned the decisions taken by the League of Arab States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
The Gaza Strip is an inseparable part of the Palestinian territories of the West Bank.
Israel is responsible for the armed conflict in the Gaza Strip.
The Arab League and OIC countries will demand that the international community investigate war crimes in Gaza.
The countries of the Arab League and the IOC will create a financial security system to support the Palestinians.
The countries of the world should hold an international peace conference on the situation in the Gaza Strip.
Kedmi added that they demanded the return of all prisoners and hostages.
Regarding the hospital Al-Shifa, Kedmi precised that this hospital was built by Israel. Israel offered to the leadership of the hospital to provide heat if needed. They responded that HAMAS refused it. We (Israel) offered to take out all incubators and all children that needs urgent care and take them to the best hospitals in Israel. We were told that HAMAS refused it. We didn’t attack or storm this hospital, no victims were reported, we were looking for members of HAMAS located in this hospital.
Kedmi paraphrazed the Israeli Minister of Defense who stated that “HAMAS opened the gates of hell, and hell is what’s happening now.”
He then added that the demonstration that you (referring to Simes on the show) are displaying out of London, where people are shouting “Death to Jews”. We see and we hear that. In France, the demonstration in Paris displayed the French flag with slogans the like of “Stop Antisemitism”. They are not in support of Israel, they are against antisemitism.
To stop this war, we need first the return of all hostages, then we will consider a cease fire, and secondly, HAMAS; its political and its armed branches should disappear from Gaza, concluded Yaakov Kedmi.
In response, Senator Alexander Babakov, stated the inadequate answer by Israel to the events that occurred on October 7th. The end goal of their military operations is not clear. The United States are acting like provocateur in this conflict, they support their activities, where there are proofs of thousand of death of civilians.
There is an ongoing humanitarian crisis associated with this conflict that we clearly see and that Israel is ignoring.
Dmitry Simes asked the input of Alexander Dugin and introduced him as a renown philosopher and maestro of geopolitics, and asked him to react to an article published by the “Global Times” (extract below) on November 12th about the Chinese reaction from the resolutions taken by the IOC and the League of Arab States.
To which, A. Dugin responded that inevitably the arab world is consolidating against the actions of Israel. This is a colossal fall in the prestige of influence of the United States to the eyes of the muslim world as a whole. To his opinion another acute problem takes place in northern Israel with Hesbollah.
He added that talking about antisemitism is astonishing, because Palestinians and Arabs are a semite people. There are the northern and southern semites people but they are one people from the same roots.
It is necessary to employ antisemitism properly. Against Israel, it would be wise to use the terms “antijudaism” or “judeophobia”. But when talking about antisemitism of palestinians or antisemitism of jews, it would be like talking about antislav russians, this is absurd.
In regards to Iran and Lebanon, D. Simes asked the question whether there will be any type of escalation of these countries into the conflict. Irina Zviagelskaya, Doctor of History, Head of Center for the Middle East Studies of the IMEMO, Professor of the Oriental Studies Department of the MGIMO University, stated that she doesn’t see such threat, because Iran, although harshly denouncing Israel in this conflict, is a very pragmatic state, and it would not be in Iran’s best interest to engage in a conflict.
For Lebanon, it will depends on Hesbollah to engage or not in a direct conflict. Now, a possibility of proxy conflict of other arab states in the region only time will tell.
Finally Simes asked Senator Alexander Babakov what does this mean to Russia. Babakov supports the politics of the two-state solution, like it has always been the position of Russia in this regard.
The position of Russia should be to find a way to stop this war as soon as possible, and to work on the mechanisms to create these two states.
On November 14th, the conversation about Israel and the conflict in the Gaza Strip revolved around a publication by the Washington Post on November 13th, titled: “Pentagon urged to halt plans for giving Israel artillery supplies”.
The selected excerpt reads:
“In a letter to Lloyd Austin, U.S. Minister of Defense, more than 30 American humanitarian, human rights, and religious organisations including Oxfam America, Amnesty International, and the Center for the Victims of Conflicts (CIVIC), expressed concern about Pentagon plans to provide the IDF with 155mm artillery shells from a U.S. warehouse in Israel. ‘In the current circumstances, granting the Israeli government access to these munitions will undermine the protection of civilians, respect for international humanitarian law, and trust in the Biden administration. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which high-explosive 155mm artillery shells could be used in Gaza in accordance with international humanitarian rights’, the letter says.”
On November 15th, Dmitry Simes gave the floor to Karen Sharnazarov, Russian cineast and General Director of the MOSFILM Studio about his vision on who is wining the Information War around the situation in Gaza. Sharbazarov stated: “When we are talking about the inevitable and difficult decisions of Netanyahu, he depends a lot on the decisions of his government following the events of October 7th. Now, everyday the pictures of dead children and other gruesome results are playing against Israel and against Netanyahu. The fight against terrorism is a very heavy fight. Steps must be taken, because the “fire is burning” and not to the advantage of Israel, to include Israel’s allies.
Now, if we are talking about a greater picture, in a metaphysic plan, it seems to me that the war in Ukraine (SMO), the events in Gaza and the near-east, this is a fire that will reach the entire world. It is like a pandemic that spreads everywhere, and in a way, changes the entire world. The near-east will be different, and the situation in Europe and the world will be different.”
2. CONFLICT IN UKRAINE
Turning to the special military operation in Ukraine, on November 14th, Dmitry Simes presented an article from the Washington Post titled: “Amid Competing U.S. Security Priorities, Ukraine could get behind.” The excerpt reads:
“…congressional interest in financing its fight against invading Russian forces has dipped lower than ever, and rising competition from other national security priorities — including Israel and the U.S. southern border — could sound the death knell for continued American aid for its embattled European ally. Both Democrats and Republicans have alluded to this possibility in recent days, as Congress hurtles toward a government shutdown and stands virtually no chance of attaching Ukraine aid to any measure aimed at preventing that. The Pentagon, meanwhile, has warned that its provisions for Kyiv are getting “smaller and smaller.”
Russian Army General (ret.) Evgeny Buzhinsky, War Expert and Professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow commented that: “Ukraine cannot win a war over Russia, according to objective proofs. Another factor that came into play is the nuclear element, but a nuclear victory is almost impossible because it would lead to a global apocalypse…
And I want to repeat that any direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia will lead towards a nuclear conflict. First with non-strategic weapons, then an inevitable escalation.”
Then, Buzhinsky reacted to a list of assistance (weaponry) provided by Germany:
He stressed the 1,020 shells of 155mm. (line 2). While Ukraine on a peak 24hr is using 8,000 of these. This is not serious. He then pointed out the 10 Surveillance Drones Vector (bottom of the list).
“We are talking about thousands, when Russia announced that next year it will release around 1,000/1,300 of these drones on the battlefield every month!”And here they are sending 10. Even the U.S. has stopped sending the PATRIOT System, they just sent it to the near east and the zones where their troops are stationed in the middle-east, Buzhinsky added.
In the meantime a statement by Kirill Budanov, Head of the GRU (Main Directorate of Intelligence) of Ukraine from November 13th was display on stage. It reads the following:
“It is hoped that 2025 will be a turning point in terms of intra-system destructive changes and processes in the Russian State, society, and economy. This is not a forecast, but an expectation. At the moment, based on the available factors, there is a possibility of this. But do not forget that this war is globalising every month and generates new processes. They will also overlap with the situation and will greatly change any calculations. This is a challenge that the world’s leading analysts have already faced”.
Senator Andrey Denisov, Russian diplomat and politician, reacted to it by stating that: “We cannot refers to these statement lightly, I cannot evaluate this individual’s prognostic or analysis. They are for us a real and dangerous enemy. They are not successful in the battlefield and their American and British curators, mostly Americans say that they do not support terrorist acts, but these are just words. For them (Ukraine) acting this way is very dangerous since they don’t have any other choice to act this way.”
3. XI AND BIDEN MEETING
On November 16th, the first part of the program was dedicated to the meeting between the American President Joe Biden and his Chinese homologue Xi Jinping, at the APEC Summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) in San Fransisco.
What’s APEC?
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a regional economic forum established in 1989 to leverage the growing interdependence of the Asia-Pacific. APEC is the premier platform for the U.S. to advance economic policies in the Asia-Pacific region to promote free, fair, and open trade and investment and advance sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
Dmitry Simes introduced his program by saying that this meeting was, according to President Biden one of the most productive meeting that ever took place between him and President Xi. Biden had many times met with Xi even when he was Vice-President during Barack Obama’s administration.
However, it didn’t stop him to refer to president Xi as a “Dictator”, as it was reported by Politico on November 15th.
Many photos and videos have circulated online about the fidgeting look of the U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken when President Biden was speaking during the meeting. Blinken seemed anxious, worry, and concern about certain statements made by Biden.